Hinojosa (D) vs. Abbott (R)
Shaded by each candidate's chance of carrying the county. Tap a county for details.
What each county's margin would tell us about the statewide race. At the Even margin the race is a coin flip. Above Hinojosa favored, he has a 70% or better chance statewide; below Abbott favored, Abbott does.
T+5 means Hinojosa wins the county by 5 percentage points; P+5 means Abbott does. "Median voter" is how often the county holds the Texas voter in the middle of the pack, so as it goes, the state goes.
Each dot is one poll's margin. The line is our weighted average: recent, larger and nonpartisan polls count more.
Sponsored means a Republican or Democratic group paid for the poll, as labeled by The Texas Tribune; we give those polls less weight. Lean vs. avg. is how far that pollster's results run from other polls taken around the same time this year: R +2.0 means about 2 points better for Abbott than the average.
Texas polls have picked the winner in every recent race, but the final margin has been off by 2 to 5 points, and not always in the same direction.
For today's forecast and for a repeat of the 2018 Governor or 2022 Governor race (each county's exact result and turnout rate, applied to 2026 registration): who wins, and what the other candidate would need.
The model groups counties that tend to move together.
Gap = forecast Senate margin minus forecast governor margin, both measured as Democrat minus Republican. A positive gap means the Democratic Senate candidate runs ahead of the Democratic governor candidate there.
Texas lets only voters 65 and older, voters with disabilities and a few others vote by mail. Mail ballots used to lean Republican. In Harris County they now lean heavily Democratic.
Source: Harris County Clerk official canvass reports. Turnout counts show how many people voted, never whom they voted for; candidate totals stay sealed until polls close at 7 p.m. on Nov. 3.
Early votes so far in each key county, in person and by mail, compared with the same point in past elections. Today's in-person counts come straight from county websites, checked every hour, hours before the state's official totals.
Texas doesn't register voters by party, and ballots are secret. The best clue to a voter's party is which party's primary they voted in. So: of the people who voted in each party's March primary, how many have already voted this fall?
Each day's new early voters in the key counties: those who voted in the March Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or neither. "No party history" includes independents, people who skip primaries, and people who voted on primary day itself, whom the state's free lists don't show.
Share of registered voters in the 30 largest counties who have voted early (in person and by mail), by day of early voting: 2026 against the 2018 and 2022 midterms. These counties cast about 80% of the vote; the state only published daily numbers for them in 2018.
Each county compared with the same day of early voting in 2022, in raw votes. Pick which votes to compare. Tap a county for its numbers.
"Lean of ballots" assumes each county's voters split the way the county is expected to vote, with mail ballots leaning further Democratic. It is an estimate, not a count.
2022 comparison: Texas Secretary of State data as compiled by The Texas Tribune's 2022 early voting tracker. 2026: Texas Secretary of State daily early voting reports.