Still counting: what the ballots left could do

These races were too close to call after election night. This page projects the uncounted ballots from the votes already counted and from how each place has voted before, and runs the count 20,000 times.

Ratings: Toss-up, Lean, Likely or Safe, by how often a candidate wins across those runs (under 65%, 65–85%, 85–97%, 97% or more). A race projected within 1 point is never rated above Lean.

Mississippi · U.S. Senate

Lean DemocraticColom favored

About 97% of the expected vote is counted (953,314 ballots); roughly 30,498 are left. Projected final margin: D+0.3 (90% range D+0.2 to D+0.6).

Candidate	Votes counted	Share now	Projected first round90% range
Scott Colom (D)	467,930	49.1%	49.1%49.0–49.2
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)	465,356	48.8%	48.8%48.7–48.9
Ty Pinkins (other)	20,028	2.1%	2.1%2.1–2.1

Compared with 2024: counties that have reported are running D+20.7 against the 2024 presidential result; uncounted ballots in a county are projected from its own count so far and that shifted 2024 result.
Provisional ballots: many of Mississippi's uncounted ballots are affidavit (provisional) ballots, and many of those are rejected. The state keeps no statewide count of them and reported no 2024 totals to the federal election survey, so the model assumes anywhere from about a third to all of the ballots left end up counted.

Where the most votes are left

County	Counted	Votes left	Margin so far
Hinds	93%	3,788	D+60.8
Harrison	95%	2,012	R+3.7
DeSoto	95%	1,853	D+6.1
Lee	90%	1,804	R+17.6
Madison	95%	1,565	D+0.8
Rankin	96%	1,426	R+25.6
Jackson	95%	1,211	R+14.7
Forrest	95%	767	D+10.3

Results as of Nov. 8, 8:03 p.m. Central.

Alaska · U.S. Senate

Likely DemocraticPeltola favored

About 74% of the expected vote is counted (213,733 ballots); roughly 74,706 are left. Projected final margin: D+3.5 (90% range R+0.1 to D+6.2).

Candidate	Votes counted	Share now	Projected first round90% range
Mary Peltola (D)	102,962	48.2%	49.9%48.6–51.2
Dan S. Sullivan (R)	102,325	47.9%	46.5%45.2–47.7
Gerald Heikes (R)	4,846	2.3%	2.0%1.9–2.1
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (other)	3,600	1.7%	1.6%1.6–1.7

Ballots counted late: mail and early ballots counted so far ran D+15.1 against the overall count. Most ballots left are of this kind. In 2024 Alaska's late count moved results by 1 to 4 points (the ranked-choice repeal led on election night and lost), so the model applies a quarter to all of that lean.
Ranked choice: no one passes 50% in the first round in 58% of runs, so last-place candidates are dropped and their voters' next choices count. Alaska publishes those rankings only when it runs the official tally, so the model varies how they split.

Where the most votes are left

District	Counted	Votes left	Margin so far
State House District 9	69%	3,412	D+2.6
State House District 3	67%	3,077	D+27.1
State House District 30	65%	2,976	R+39.9
State House District 2	60%	2,914	D+16.6
State House District 6	75%	2,675	R+3.7
State House District 11	70%	2,636	R+2.2
State House District 4	69%	2,532	D+53.9
State House District 16	71%	2,518	D+22.4

Results as of Nov. 8, 8:03 p.m. Central.

Alaska · Governor

Safe DemocraticKreiss-Tomkins favored

About 74% of the expected vote is counted (211,337 ballots); roughly 75,027 are left. Projected final margin: D+28.1 (90% range D+21.9 to D+31.0).

Candidate	Votes counted	Share now	Projected first round90% range
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)	103,837	49.1%	50.9%49.6–52.2
Bernadette Wilson (R)	61,734	29.2%	28.5%27.5–29.6
Dave Bronson (R)	30,003	14.2%	13.4%13.0–13.8
Treg Taylor (R)	15,763	7.5%	7.2%7.0–7.3

Ballots counted late: mail and early ballots counted so far ran D+10.3 against the overall count. Most ballots left are of this kind. In 2024 Alaska's late count moved results by 1 to 4 points (the ranked-choice repeal led on election night and lost), so the model applies a quarter to all of that lean.
Ranked choice: no one passes 50% in the first round in 14% of runs, so last-place candidates are dropped and their voters' next choices count. Alaska publishes those rankings only when it runs the official tally, so the model varies how they split.

Where the most votes are left

District	Counted	Votes left	Margin so far
State House District 9	69%	3,410	D+29.6
State House District 3	67%	3,084	D+46.7
State House District 30	65%	2,985	R+19.4
State House District 2	60%	2,907	D+41.0
State House District 6	74%	2,692	D+11.7
State House District 11	70%	2,652	D+23.7
State House District 4	69%	2,555	D+65.0
State House District 16	71%	2,527	D+41.2

Results as of Nov. 8, 8:05 p.m. Central.

How this projection works

Start with the votes counted so far in each county (Mississippi) or state House district (Alaska).
Estimate the votes left in each place from how much of its expected vote is in.
Project how those votes lean: the place's own count so far, blended with its 2024 result shifted by the swing seen in every reporting place. In Alaska, ballots counted after Election Day are mostly mail and early ballots, so they get part of the lean those ballots have shown.
Run the count 20,000 times, each time shifting the uncounted vote statewide, place by place, and in how many ballots are really left. The share of runs each candidate wins sets the rating.
Alaska uses ranked choice: when no one passes 50%, the last-place candidate is dropped and their voters' next choices count. In Alaska's 2022 House tally, about half of the eliminated Republican's voters went to the other Republican, 29% to the Democrat, and 21% had no next choice; the model varies around those rates.

What it cannot see: provisional (affidavit) ballots that may be rejected, ballots still arriving by mail, and Alaska's actual second choices, which are released only with the official ranked-choice tally. Mississippi's count is close enough that a recount is possible.